- Health
Breast cancer cases haven’t doubled in U.S. women under 45, despite social media claims
Key takeaway
Official figures for breast cancer cases in 2022 aren’t yet available. However, there is no reason to believe that they will have almost doubled. This claim came from misinterpreting projections that were not comparable to years before 2022. The COVID-19 vaccines have been extensively studied, and there’s no reliable evidence that they increase cancer risk.
Reviewed content
Verdict:
Claim:
“There is a huge boom in cancer, especially in female breast cancer in the younger ages of 45 and below.”
Verdict detail
Factually inaccurate: The numbers published by the American Cancer Society aren’t comparable between 2022 and previous years, as they include different age groups. The figures don’t suggest that breast cancer cases have doubled in women under 45.
Misleading: The figures produced by the American Cancer Society are estimated projections of cancer cases based on demographics and incidence rates from previous years. They don’t represent the actual number of cases diagnosed each year
Full Claim
“There is a huge boom in cancer, especially in female breast cancer in the younger ages of 45 and below.”; “We’re never going to get the truth on the jab and its side effects.”
Review
A video that originated on TikTok and was widely shared on Facebook wrongly claimed that there was a spike in breast cancer cases in 2022. As this review will explain, the video misrepresented the data, and the change in the figure from previous years was due to a different age range included.
The American Cancer Society (ACS) publishes a Cancer Facts & Figures report every year, which provides projections of the number of cancer cases and deaths expected for the coming year. This differs from reports from organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which gather the actual number of cases that occurred during past years.
The ACS reports don’t suggest that breast cancer cases have almost doubled
The TikTok video focused on a table provided by the ACS that included the projected cases of female breast cancer for women under 45 in the U.S. However, the video didn’t explain that this was a projected figure rather than actual cancer cases. It went on to highlight that the figures produced by the ACS remained at approximately 26,500 cases each year between 2019-2021.
In 2022, the ACS replaced this table with one that provides data for cancer incidence in the under-50 age group. This projected 47,550 new breast cancer cases in women under 50 and didn’t specify the projection just for under-45s. The TikTok video didn’t explain that the 2022 table is for a different age range than the previous years and instead claimed that breast cancer cases have almost doubled.
The risk of breast cancer rises sharply with age, so the number of cases is expected to increase significantly when older age groups are also included. Real-world national figures for 2022 aren’t yet available. However, the CDC reports that 99,131 women aged 45-49 were diagnosed with breast cancer between 2016 and 2020, an average of 19,826 per year. If a similar number were used in ACS’s projections, it would account for almost all of the difference caused by including this age group in the figures for their 2022 report.
The risk of breast cancer is known to be increasing in the U.S., likely due to lifestyle changes. However, this increase is about 0.5% a year, far below the spike claimed by the TikTok video.
The video also highlights a figure from Table 2 of the 2023 report of 297,790 estimated new cases of female breast cancer for the upcoming year for all ages. However, the video misrepresents this figure, suggesting that it is the total number of cases for the year to date by saying: “297,000, and the year ain’t over yet”.
The projected figure for 2023 is similar to those of previous years, and continues a trend of increasing numbers of cancers diagnosed caused by an aging population.
The COVID-19 vaccines don’t raise the risk of cancer
The video alludes to the COVID-19 vaccines being the cause of the mistaken rise in breast cancer cases, saying, “What happened in 2020? What was introduced [but] took a year to [be given] to most people?” and “Something’s going on. We’re never going to get the truth on the jab and its side effects.”
The COVID-19 vaccines were studied in clinical trials and using real-world data to analyze their safety. As the National Cancer Institute says, there is no reliable evidence that the COVID-19 vaccines increase cancer risk. Health Feedback has previously reviewed incorrect, misleading, and unsupported claims that the COVID-19 vaccines are linked to cancer.
In addition, the projections used in the 2022 ACS table are based on the incidence in the U.S. between 2004 and 2018. Therefore, the figures don’t account for any impact COVID-19 or the vaccines could have had. The ACS also warns that:
“The projected numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in 2022 should not be compared with previous years to track cancer trends because they are model-based and vary from year to year for reasons other than changes in cancer occurrence.”
In summary, the figures published by the ACS are projections based on previous cancer incidence data from before COVID-19, not data on the actual number of women getting breast cancer that year. A change in the age group used in the projections for the 2022 report led to a sharp increase in the published figures compared to previous years. The COVID-19 vaccines have been extensively studied, and there’s no reliable evidence that they increase cancer risk.
